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Back to the Future in the Middle East: Governance Stagnation
By Kaufmann | June 27, 2009 1 Comment »
I am at the Hanoi airport right now, blogging for a few minutes while CNN alternates between Michael Jackson and Iran. I just gave a set of presentations on governance in Hanoi and Seoul. There was interest about what does the governance data which we have collected and analyzed over the years tell us. Among other findings, I happen to think that the enormous variation in governance performance around the world is noteworthy.
But at times some in the audience are particularly interested in the finding that on average there is no evidence that over the past decade the world has improved on governance. Some find such finding of stagnating governance around the world (on average) hard to believe, pointing to some countries making strides. Yet the developments in Iran is a stark reminder of how prone countries can also be to deteriorate on governance…
But are there perhaps some other glimmers of hope in the Middle East vicinity? The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dared to utter the words ’Palestinian state’ about a week ago, a happening lauded as a breakthrough. Progress towards a two-state solution following such long nightmare, one systematically exploited by countries in the region to mask their own governance failures, could signal the dawn of a new era in the Middle East.
Unfortunately, it is difficult to see yet how Netanyahu would be genuinely prepared to make the kind of concessions required to carry out such a project. He would have to be ready to scale back Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and also accept a divided Jerusalem (or variant thereof).
And right now Netanyahu is unlikely to be under much pressure to take concrete forward steps towards supporting the creation of a Palestinian state, given that the Obama administration attention has had to shift to the Iran crisis. For this reason, and also because it backstops the Israel’s longstanding hardline position towards Iran (which is mutual, obviously), Netanyahu and his government is unlikely to be displeased by the developments in Iran, in fact.
I would like to proven wrong, but at least in the near future I don’t see the conditions present for Israel to take the necessary steps. Hamas and a number of key Arab governments are not helping either (mildly put…).
The other day I was reminded of a reason that I remain skeptical about an imminent breakthrough on improved governance in the Middle East in general, or progress towards a Palestinian state in particular. I was sent a link to an article I wrote, making the case for an Israeli initiative towards the creation of a Palestinian state’, where I argued that such a move also made sense from a pragmatic Israeli self-interest.
Of course it is not such a big deal to write arguing for a Palestinian State, which is not such a radical thought even by somebody who has lived in Israel… Except that the article published in the Harvard Crimson on the Palestinian state proposal dates back to 33 years ago, when I was a graduate student (struggling with english). At the time evidently I shocked quite a few, and was vilified by a number of people for holding such a ‘radical’ view — and for writing publicly about it having just arrived to the US…
More to the point, receiving this link now to that article reminded me of the lack of progress in the Middle East over such a long period of time. Over a generation, in fact. We shouldn’t be that surprised when the data on governance also points in that direction as well.
Topics: Rule of Law, Voice and Human Rights | | 1 Comment
June 30th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
I’m from China, and corruption is really a big problem here