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Back to the Future in the soccer World Cup: Chile wins 1-0 or 3-1?
By Kaufmann | June 16, 2010 4 Comments »
This day, June 16th, is the day when Chile won a very important soccer game. So important, that Chile earned 3rd place in the World Cup! How can that be, some may ask, when the current World Cup in South Africa is only in its very first stage?
I am thinking about the very same day in the World Cup exactly 48 years ago:… On June 16th, 1962, Chile beat Yugoslavia and earned 3rd place in that World Cup hosted by Chile. I still have vivid memories as a kid from that historical encounter, including the Eladio Rojas goal in the very last play of the game. I was in attendance with my father and brother. Chile’s performance in that World Cup surprised pundits, since it did not have well known players. Their special team spirit (and being hosts) did help.
Today, June 16th 2010, Chile’s inaugural game at the World Cup in South Africa also ended with a 1-0 victory, this time against Honduras. This time I saw the game via the internet. It may not be a mind-boggling coincidence that Chile won by the same score on these two games played on a June 16th. Except for the fact that since that victory in 1962 Chile had never won a single World Cup game until today! It was a 13-game winless streak. Today the spell was broken.
Now onto more substance about the evolution of soccer: historically, the 1962 World Cup is an important turning point, since it marks the advent of modern defensive strategies in soccer. Until that World Cup, the average scoring had always exceeded 3 goals per game. In the 1962 World Cup, the goal scoring dropped significantly below 3 goals, to 2.78 goals per game, never to recover.
Defensive strategies have further taken hold. Nowadays we would be satisfied if we were witnessing ‘a mere’ 2.78 goals per game. In the seven World Cups between 1980 and 2006, the average had already dropped further to only 2.53 goals per game.
Wait, it gets worse. So far, during this initial phase of the current World Cup in South Africa, the average scoring has been an abysmally low 1.56 goals per game! One can blame the temperature, altitude in some venues, nervous initial stage, noisy vuvuzelas, the new Jabulani ball, the uneven pitch, and the like, but to this observer, those are unlikely to cut the mustard. For one thing, average scoring in the initial stages do not tend to be abnormally low. Expect a possible pick up on goals scored in later games, but not much.
And the new Jabulani ball was expected to increase, not lower, scoring in each game. Perhaps we ought not rule out a miscalculation by the ball designers and by FIFA officials, if it turns out that the unpredictability of the ball plays more havoc for a striker’s accuracy than for the goalie trying to handle it.
I think more emphasis should be given to globalization as a reason for lower scoring results. The globalization of soccer players (where they play, where they become naturalized), as well as the globalization of soccer coaching and their coaches, and of technology (permitting viewing in detail everything an opponent team has done), as well as the globalization of defensive strategies, may have brought about much lower scoring games.
What does it all mean for Chile’s next World Cup game, against the great spoilers of this tournament, Switzerland — which today beat Spain also by a 1-0 score? If we believe in astrology for a prediction, then let us travel back to the 1962 World Cup again, when in the memorable opening game of that tournament, Chile beat Switzerland 3-1.
Will that same 3-1 very score be repeated in the current Chile-Switzerland game in South Africa? Or, if we take a more statistical approach accounting for the defensive nature of games nowadays, perhaps Chile will win again, as in today’s game with Honduras, 1-0? Either way, I am playing around with wishful thinking and coincidences, not with sophisticated models.
In fact, neutral observers and odd makers will dismiss either one of those two predictions as unscientific and partisan, and claim instead that Switzerland is the favorite, not Chile, based on their stunning win over Spain today.
Indeed, I am partisan. So I say to them: not so fast. After all, few expected the achievement of Chile not only in successfully hosting the World Cup in 1962, but also in earning 3rd place, which then it also took place shortly after a devastating earthquake had struck.
Topics: Measurement Frontiers, Regulation & Security | | 4 Comments
June 17th, 2010 at 7:51 am
I enjoyed your story and shared your memories like if they would be mine. I have the same dreams for the Chilean performance in South Africa. The difference was that you were watching from the Andes while I was in the Chacabuco Section.
June 19th, 2010 at 9:58 am
Actually, I recall being seated rather high up in the stadium, and on the side, far from Andes section… More importantly, looking ahead, it will be fascinating to witness the battle of two brilliant soccer coaches in Chile’s next game against Switzerland: Bielsa has his match in Hitzfeld, who single-handedly beat the top ranked Spanish team.
June 23rd, 2010 at 4:50 am
Chile team did a great game, but i guess both teams are on play off now
June 23rd, 2010 at 9:12 pm
Interesting, newspapers in Switzerland – where I come from – did not report that Chile won also against Switzerland in 1962. I congratulate you for the precise forecast of the victory (1-0). However, Switzerland will make it anyway into the next round because they will win 2-0 against Honduras though they have not scored more than one goal in the last 10 games. In this case, we will not care about the score of the other game (Spain-Chile). See you next week in Ottawa.